Among hockey scribes, there is a school of thought which holds that once you reach Thanksgiving -- or "American Thanksgiving," as our Canadian friends more accurately call it -- you can already tell which teams will make the playoffs simply by looking at who would be in if the season were to end that day. According to this school of thought, those same teams are almost certain to be in when the season really does end, with maybe (but only maybe) a couple exceptions.
That sounds kind of nuts, seeing as how the NHL season is 82 games long and is only one-quarter finished at Thanksgiving, but there is actually a lot of data that backs it up. Still, there are always exceptions, which goes to prove what we already know: That's why they play the games!
And having said that, here are my thoughts about the current NHL season now that its three-quarter mark -- and that Canadian National Holiday otherwise known as "the trade deadline" -- has passed:
Turnarounds
On November 23rd, the evening after Thanksgiving, I sat in Amalie Arena and watched my Tampa Bay Lighting dismantle the Chicago Blackhawks by scoring four goals in the first period. At that time the Blackhawks were circling the drain with the third-worst record in the league and seemingly no hope for the future. And when the puck dropped to start that game, the best record in the league was owned not by Tampa Bay but by the Buffalo Sabres.
Fast forward to today and the Blackhawks have risen phoenix-like and rallied to within five points of a wild card spot despite losing all-world goalie Corey Crawford to a head injury for more than two months. Meanwhile, the Sabres have managed to implode and tumble all the way out of the playoff field.
And then there are the St.Louis Blues, who floundered through much of the season's first half with many an observer believing they were dead. But since the calendar flipped to 2019 the Blues have gone an a tear, fueled largely by a sterling run from January 23rd through February 24th, during which they gained points in 14 of 16 games and won 11 in a row. If the playoffs were to start today, they would be in them and would not even be a wild card.
Which brings me back to what I said above: That's why they play the games. All 82 of them. Don't ever let some know-it-all writer tell you who's gonna make the post-season months before it even begins (unless the know-it-all happens to be me, of course).
Conference differences
The Lightning are having an almost unfathomably good season, having become just the fourth team in history (and first in 41 years) to reach the 100-point plateau in fewer than 64 games. Thus they are the prohibitive Stanley Cup favorites.
Which is not to say they will win it, because before we can even talk about teams from the Western Conference, it has to be said that there are a few in the Eastern Conference who are good enough to upset the Lightning in the post-season and take "their" spot in the final. Don't look now, but the Bruins entered today on a 14-game points streak, and those first-place-in-the-Metro Islanders have gotta be feeling good about the fact that their starting goalie, Robin Lehner, has the #1 save percentage in the NHL while their backup, Thomas Greiss, has the #2 save percentage in the NHL. Yikes!
But despite the existence of such formidable in-conference foes, it feels like the Lightning are, realistically speaking, the only truly bona fide Cup contender in the East. Conversely, the Western Conference has five -- count 'em, five -- legit Cup contenders in Winnipeg, San Jose, Nashville, Vegas, and Calgary. Which is especially weird when you consider that: 1) the East is a much stronger conference from top to bottom, and 2) of the teams with the seven best records in the NHL, five are from the East and only two from the West.
Not that that means anything. It's just a little strange, that's all.
Trade musings
Sometimes, orchestrating a big splash of a trade at or near the deadline yields the kind of big results that make it worthwhile. Think Butch Goring, 1980. But sometimes it doesn't, and in fact it usually doesn't if the whole point of the trade is for your team to win the Cup that season.
Just because a certain player fits good on Team A and plays good on Team A does not mean he will gel with Team B when he arrives. After all, we are talking about a whole different group of teammates with their own chemistry, a whole different organization with its own culture, and a short period of time for the new guy to find his place in the mix before the vulcanized rubber hits the post-season ice.
So I am clearly not sold on making major February trades just because media types say you should. But those trades are certainly worth talking about and sometimes they do work out -- and man oh man, weren't those some big big deals that went down in the Western Conference?
By bringing in Brian Boyle and Wayne Simmonds, the Nashville Predators addressed their major roster needs -- size, grit, power play scoring -- and therefore it seems that their already good chances of making a deep run just got boosted... And Winnipeg, by bringing in Kevin Hayes to center their second line, replicated last year's Paul Stastny trade while tackling their own major need of pivot depth... And Vegas? All they did was land 26-year-old Mark Stone, the most highly prized forward available on deadline day, and immediately ink him to an eight-year extension.
Those teams are going all-in in their quest to win the Cup now, not "someday." The question is will the new additions, for one of these teams, fit in cleanly like game pieces and deliver the goods? Or will the ultimate reward go instead to conference opponent Calgary or Eastern Conference juggernaut Tampa Bay, both of whom opted to stand pat rather than try to chase rainbows by tinkering with things that ain't broken. Only time will tell.
Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young
As the trade deadline loomed, everyone who follows hockey heard the drumming in O-hi-o and wondered if there would be tin soldiers and sadness coming to Nationwide Arena. Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen answered that drumming by deciding it's not getting to the point that he and his club are no fun anymore.
Entering this month, Kekalainen was jammed between a rock and a hard place due to the uncertain upcoming status of franchise cornerstones Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin, both of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents when their contracts expire on July 1st. The problem is that neither of them was willing to sign a pre-deadline contract extension; i.e., neither was willing to agree to remain in Columbus without testing the open market. This led many and sundry to debate whether Kekalainen should trade them now rather than risk getting nothing in returnwhen if they leave for warmer greener pastures; or whether he should hold on to them in the hope of making a deep playoff run this spring, seeing as how the Jackets have never gotten past the first round and their current roster, led by Bobrovsky and Panarin, seems to be their best ever.
Like a riverboat gambler letting it ride, the 52-year-old executive from Tampere, Finland planted his stake firmly on the latter side of the debate. On the one hand he did not trade Bobrovsky or Panarin, and with his other hand he dealt away a slew of draft picks to bring in four quality veterans -- all of whom are also on expiring contracts and set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1st.
You can see the benefit these new Jackets bring to the table: Matt Duchesne is an offensive star, Ryan Dzingel is one of the most underrated forwards in the league, Adam McQuaid brings 9+ seasons of quality experience to the blueline, and goalie Keith Kincaid, with his .906 career save percentage, should be a fine backup for Bobrovsky. Theoretically this group makes the Jackets much more competitive than they were a week ago.
But does it make the Jackets a genuine threat to make a run for the Cup, or does it merely raise their ceiling from first-round elimination to second-round elimination? When July rolls around every player in this foursome could go elsewhere, on top of the fact that Bobrovsky and Panarinwill could go elsewhere. Then how could Kekalainen restock the cupboard, seeing as how he brought the foursome in by trading away most of Columbus's picks in the upcoming draft (they now have only a third- and seventh-rounder) and seeing as how other free agents are sure to wonder why they should sign with a franchise that couldn't convince players already in its fold to stay in town?
I don't think Kekalainen's gamble will come close to paying off, but I gotta admire the moxie it took for him to make it. Faced with a fork in the road and knowing both directions would have potholes, he chose a direction without flinching and put all his chips on the table without blinking.
Conference differences
The Lightning are having an almost unfathomably good season, having become just the fourth team in history (and first in 41 years) to reach the 100-point plateau in fewer than 64 games. Thus they are the prohibitive Stanley Cup favorites.
Which is not to say they will win it, because before we can even talk about teams from the Western Conference, it has to be said that there are a few in the Eastern Conference who are good enough to upset the Lightning in the post-season and take "their" spot in the final. Don't look now, but the Bruins entered today on a 14-game points streak, and those first-place-in-the-Metro Islanders have gotta be feeling good about the fact that their starting goalie, Robin Lehner, has the #1 save percentage in the NHL while their backup, Thomas Greiss, has the #2 save percentage in the NHL. Yikes!
But despite the existence of such formidable in-conference foes, it feels like the Lightning are, realistically speaking, the only truly bona fide Cup contender in the East. Conversely, the Western Conference has five -- count 'em, five -- legit Cup contenders in Winnipeg, San Jose, Nashville, Vegas, and Calgary. Which is especially weird when you consider that: 1) the East is a much stronger conference from top to bottom, and 2) of the teams with the seven best records in the NHL, five are from the East and only two from the West.
Not that that means anything. It's just a little strange, that's all.
Trade musings
Sometimes, orchestrating a big splash of a trade at or near the deadline yields the kind of big results that make it worthwhile. Think Butch Goring, 1980. But sometimes it doesn't, and in fact it usually doesn't if the whole point of the trade is for your team to win the Cup that season.
Just because a certain player fits good on Team A and plays good on Team A does not mean he will gel with Team B when he arrives. After all, we are talking about a whole different group of teammates with their own chemistry, a whole different organization with its own culture, and a short period of time for the new guy to find his place in the mix before the vulcanized rubber hits the post-season ice.
So I am clearly not sold on making major February trades just because media types say you should. But those trades are certainly worth talking about and sometimes they do work out -- and man oh man, weren't those some big big deals that went down in the Western Conference?
By bringing in Brian Boyle and Wayne Simmonds, the Nashville Predators addressed their major roster needs -- size, grit, power play scoring -- and therefore it seems that their already good chances of making a deep run just got boosted... And Winnipeg, by bringing in Kevin Hayes to center their second line, replicated last year's Paul Stastny trade while tackling their own major need of pivot depth... And Vegas? All they did was land 26-year-old Mark Stone, the most highly prized forward available on deadline day, and immediately ink him to an eight-year extension.
Those teams are going all-in in their quest to win the Cup now, not "someday." The question is will the new additions, for one of these teams, fit in cleanly like game pieces and deliver the goods? Or will the ultimate reward go instead to conference opponent Calgary or Eastern Conference juggernaut Tampa Bay, both of whom opted to stand pat rather than try to chase rainbows by tinkering with things that ain't broken. Only time will tell.
Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young
As the trade deadline loomed, everyone who follows hockey heard the drumming in O-hi-o and wondered if there would be tin soldiers and sadness coming to Nationwide Arena. Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen answered that drumming by deciding it's not getting to the point that he and his club are no fun anymore.
Entering this month, Kekalainen was jammed between a rock and a hard place due to the uncertain upcoming status of franchise cornerstones Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin, both of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents when their contracts expire on July 1st. The problem is that neither of them was willing to sign a pre-deadline contract extension; i.e., neither was willing to agree to remain in Columbus without testing the open market. This led many and sundry to debate whether Kekalainen should trade them now rather than risk getting nothing in return
Like a riverboat gambler letting it ride, the 52-year-old executive from Tampere, Finland planted his stake firmly on the latter side of the debate. On the one hand he did not trade Bobrovsky or Panarin, and with his other hand he dealt away a slew of draft picks to bring in four quality veterans -- all of whom are also on expiring contracts and set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1st.
You can see the benefit these new Jackets bring to the table: Matt Duchesne is an offensive star, Ryan Dzingel is one of the most underrated forwards in the league, Adam McQuaid brings 9+ seasons of quality experience to the blueline, and goalie Keith Kincaid, with his .906 career save percentage, should be a fine backup for Bobrovsky. Theoretically this group makes the Jackets much more competitive than they were a week ago.
But does it make the Jackets a genuine threat to make a run for the Cup, or does it merely raise their ceiling from first-round elimination to second-round elimination? When July rolls around every player in this foursome could go elsewhere, on top of the fact that Bobrovsky and Panarin
I don't think Kekalainen's gamble will come close to paying off, but I gotta admire the moxie it took for him to make it. Faced with a fork in the road and knowing both directions would have potholes, he chose a direction without flinching and put all his chips on the table without blinking.
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